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While world leaders convene in Brazil for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is crucial to assess our collective progress in reducing worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

In spite of three decades of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the initial scientific evaluation by the IPCC, which verified the threat of anthropogenic climate change. While researchers prepare the upcoming IPCC report, they do so aware that their work remains overshadowed by political influences. Despite sincere attempts, the planet is still dangerously off track to prevent dangerous global warming.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Recent data indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a record high of 423.9 parts per million in the year 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 surging by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of total global CO₂ emissions in last year came from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% resulted from alterations in land use such as deforestation and forest fires.

Although the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by higher use of gas and oil—accounting for over half of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also reached a historic peak, constituting forty-one percent. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to move beyond fossil fuels, collective plans still aim to extract over twice the amount of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of natural gas justified as a less polluting transition fuel.

The Mirage of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of concentrating on economic incentives to speed up the elimination of fossil fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feel-good eco-positive solutions that seek to neutralize CO2 output by afforestation rather than reducing industrial emissions. While protecting, expanding, and rehabilitating natural carbon sinks like forests and wetlands is inherently good, research has shown that there is not enough land to reach the global goal of net zero emissions using ecological methods by themselves.

Roughly one billion hectares—an area larger than the USA—is required to meet carbon neutrality commitments. More than 40% of this land would need to be transformed from existing uses like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Even if this ideal restoration could be achieved, forests take time to mature and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a fast or permanent carbon storage solution, especially in a rapidly shifting climate. As extreme heat and dryness affect more of the planet, these sincere attempts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Research data tells us that about 50% of the carbon dioxide released annually stays in the air, while the rest is taken up by oceans and land ecosystems. With global heating, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at soaking up CO₂, meaning that additional CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, further exacerbating global warming. Transferring the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors effectively excuses the fossil fuel industry from the urgency to reduce emissions in the near future.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Achieving net zero by 2050 requires CO2 extraction (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to absorb surplus CO2 from the air. Polluters can simply purchase offsets to counterbalance their discharges and proceed with normal operations. Meanwhile, the energy imbalance resulting from the burning of fossil fuels keeps on further destabilise the global climate system. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our planetary credit card, leaving future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the scale and duration of overshoot the global warming targets, the planet eventually needs to surpass the balancing impact of carbon neutrality and start to remove cumulative historical emissions to achieve net negative emissions.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the latest numbers from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equivalent of about five percent of yearly CO2 from fuels, while technology-based CDR represents only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. Optimistic industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of carbon neutrality is a deceptive gap that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eliminate the primary cause of our warming world—fossil fuels.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

Although this research-backed truth should dominate discussions at the climate summit, past events indicates that gradual, cautious steps and deference to politics will win out. Ambiguous promises of future ambition will keep on delay the pressing requirement for concrete immediate action. Until leaders are brave enough to implement carbon pricing to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are releasing increasing amounts of CO2 to the air, worsening the physical catastrophe currently happening all around us.

The dilemma we face is simple: genuinely respond to the scientific reality of our crisis or endure the results of this deep ethical lapse for centuries to come.