Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the almost four-year war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Steven Mcgee
Steven Mcgee

A seasoned innovation consultant with over 15 years of experience in helping startups and enterprises drive growth through cutting-edge strategies.